Production Analysis Disputes Claims Of 5S Outselling 5C Forecasts Combined Sales Of 50 55M In Q4

KGI’s Mingchi Kuo, an analyst with an excellent track record, has disputed an earlier suggestion by web analytics company Localytics that the iPhone 5s is outselling the 5c three-to-one, suggesting that actual sales are closer to 50/50 – with 5c sales actually likely to be somewhat higher.

KGI estimates that the 9M initial sales comprised 3.5-4.5M iPhone 5s, and 4.5-5.5M iPhone 5c.

The confidential briefing document points out that analytics data is based on activation (or, more specifically, use of the phone to browse the web and run certain apps), which is not the same as sales. KGI’s estimates are based on production numbers … 

With the iPhone 5s in short supply, Apple ought to be selling every phone it makes, meaning that production numbers and sales should be very closely aligned. KGI believes supply of the iPhone 5s is improving, which will allow combined Q4 sales to hit 50-55M.